For 2016 Stocks, The Only Thing To Fear Is Fear Itself

Folks commonly fret over fears I simply don't think will happen. Take Brexit. As you get this Forbes issue, the vote nears. Britain voting to exit the EU is very unlikely, shy of a last-minute major terrorist attack (heaven forbid). The polls move against it. So do the betting markets. Bet with the bettors? You bet--on things like this. The exit advocates are just venting, much like 2014's Scottish independence referendum.

Fed hiking rates in June? Unlikely. Why? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting takes place more than a week before the Brexit vote. Fed heads won't want an action entangled with that vote's outcome.

What about their July 26-27 meeting? Similarly unlikely: They won't want to seem reactive to the concurrent Democratic Convention. Sept. 20-21? Too close to the election--they won't want to be seen impacting it, unless things look extreme (which they won't). The Nov. 1-2 meeting? No chance. Maybe postelection--in December. There's simply no urgency in today's Fed world.

Why do folks Fed-fret so much? Simply said, as noted by Deutsche Bank, the five most hawkish FOMC members are doing more jaw-jacking this year than their quieter dovish counterparts. Relax and wait. The FOMC will.

Weak economy? Nope--the Leading Economic Index numbers almost everywhere, even China, keep evolving better than expected. LEIs for a country predict its economy, but scanning LEIs all over the world proves a greater guide to global economic direction. It's benign.

Similarly, for reasons I'll detail in coming months, I don't fear Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. Or impending higher U.S. bank capital requirements. Or Brazil's endless corruption. Or Energy draining all our energy. My Fret-O-Meter says 2016 is, as I explained in April, a year of falling uncertainty, which should progressively boost stocks.